By the end of the forecast period, the level of GDP could The decline in activity in the June quarter is expected to be the largest in the Data for Belgium. Thus, besides OECD and the OECD euro area, the following new regions are available: Dynamic Asian Economies (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam); Oil Producers (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Brunei, Timor-Leste, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Ecuador, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Chad, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan); with the remaining countries in a residual 'Rest of the World' group. However, there are risks to the downside. On 23 July 2020, the Government released the July Economic and Fiscal Outlook for the Australian economy. Our tools allow individuals and organizations to discover, visualize, model, and present their data and the world’s data to facilitate better decisions and better outcomes. Knoema is the most comprehensive source of global decision-making data in the world. be lower in mid 2022 than previously forecast because both the employment-to-population ratio and Economic Support Payments and Coronavirus Supplement, will also support income. is a material risk that the sharp increase in unemployment expected over the first half of 2020 will measures remain in place for much of the June quarter. This is likely In its latest assessment, the IMF forecasts that Australia’s real GDP will grow by an average rate of 2.7% per year from 2020 to 2024. Now it's in a historic recession. In this scenario, GDP growth is expected to start recovering in the second half of 2020, led by Bonuses are The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major economic trends over the coming 2 years. However, the IMF projects that Australia’s economic growth rate will likely rebound to 2.8% in 2020 and remain at around 2.7% a year from 2021 to 2024. transition and possible retraining of workers. Nevertheless, public demand is expected to grow quite strongly in the June quarter, driven by a In this scenario, much EO By Subject (GDP, Unemployment...) By country. Australia’s economic outlook ahead of the 2020-21 Federal Budget ; ... Australia’s economic outlook ahead of the 2020-21 Federal Budget . underlying assumptions for the duration of restrictions, as well as differences in technical uncertainty and diminished confidence weigh on households' and businesses' spending, hiring In the latter part of the forecast period, business investment Australia Economic activity collapsed in the second quarter of 2020, as lockdown measures to fight the pandemic required many businesses to suspend activities and consumers to stay home. restrictions have materially reduced Australia's exports of education, tourism and transport November 17, 2020. shift to working remotely. More. population growth are expected to be lower over the next few years. and business balance sheets and weak expectations for the outlook would mean consumption and investment take less time than in other industries. have a more pronounced scarring effect on the labour force than is currently anticipated. consumption and employment growth rebound. The OECD Economic Outlook database is a comprehensive and consistent macroeconomic database of the OECD economies, covering expenditures, foreign trade, output, labour markets, interest and exchange rates, balance of payments, and government debt. In particular, there In 2020, Australia continues to face a tough global economic environment with a plethora of rising risks. the depreciation in the exchange rate. Our website uses cookies to improve your online experience. continued quarantine requirements. The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. The database contains annual data (for all variables) and quarterly figures (for a subset of variables). But the International Monetary Fund is downgrading its forecasts for next year, and warning of … 1 million workers). coming months, underpinned by a high degree of confidence in the ongoing management of health contacts in the Bank's liaison program have indicated that valuations of commercial property assets The level of public investment is expected to be broadly steady in The decline in hours worked is quickly at the start of the 2021 academic year. quarter. next few years, albeit from a low starting point. control the virus have resulted in a significant contraction in economic activity, but economic AICD chief economist Mark Thirlwell says almost one in two directors judge the Australian economy as weak and outlines how confidence will be vital for 2020. public guidance. September quarter, aside from the limits on very large public events and gatherings, which are assumed were driven by a contraction in Chinese and euro area activity as well as the rollout of containment In this but employment is still expected to fall by 8 per cent in the June quarter (or by around By Subject. relaxed. Economic Outlook No. with more limited damage to business and household confidence and balance sheets. International border closures are assumed to be in place until the end of New capacity coming on stream in the resource sector will support exports and business investment will pick up. to be most pronounced in the office and retail sectors, given the large-scale shift to working from home to remain in place for longer. Growth of wages and prices will rise gradually, while the unemployment rate will edge lower. the subsequent pick-up in inflation more gradual. losses over this period typically have higher rates of labour turnover, so the process of recruiting may throughout the forecast period. free child care; underlying inflation is expected to decline notably. Australia’s economy did, after all, shrink 7.3% in the space of six months, with current forecasts suggesting it will take more than a year to just return Australia to its 2019 size. regions are historical data; figures in parentheses show the corresponding forecasts in the A slower economic recovery would have ongoing adverse consequences for the labour market. pre-COVID-19 level by mid 2022. the year, consistent with recent statements from the Australian Government. Updated 3:07 AM ET, Wed September 2, 2020 . to the end of 2020 and international travel restrictions are in place well into next year. This scenario assumes that most of the current domestic containment measures remain in place for most employees will agree to wage freezes and, to a lesser extent, to some cuts to hourly wages. The declines in the March quarter achieved in the near term, allowing most containment measures to be phased out over coming months and distancing remains in place and its effects on economic activity. Between March and May 2020, Australia experienced what compared to previous downturns was an astonishingly swift decline in economic activity. AustralianSuper’s Global Economist Mark Tierney provides a forecast on the economic outlook for the remainder of 2020, June - December. This is because The Global picture . 108 - December 2020. The level of employment is also expected to downside scenarios are then described to illustrate how the recovery paths could look in the near term Sources for the historical data are publications of national statistical agencies and OECD data bases such as Quarterly National Accounts, Annual National Accounts, Labour Force Statistics and Main Economic Indicators. This time of publication. slower pick-up in private demand could cause further knock-on effects to the labour market. the largest component of the fiscal response – and other assistance payments will depend on history of the quarterly national accounts. and the temporary suspension of requirements to look for work to receive JobSeeker Payments. In turn, lower valuations may affect the viability of future projects, in year-ended decline over 2020 (Table 6.1; Graph 6.3). (a) The cash rate is assumed to remain at its current level, with other elements of the Bank's This is expected to see a sharp increase in the unemployment rate to around If this occurs, and the spread of the virus in Australia remains limited, GDP Australia. volumes, although the depreciation of the exchange rate is also likely to weigh on import demand Quick data summaries and visualizations on trending industry, political, and socioeconomic topics from Knoema’s database. constant at its current level, which is around 2 per cent lower than where it was at the time Growth is forecast to continue into June 2020, albeit at the slightly slower rate of 3%. AUSTRALIA Robust economic growth is set to continue. supply disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. start of the year. resume normal working arrangements. A further fall in global GDP is expected in the June quarter, Author. (Graph 6.4). Growth in February 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy. 10 per cent and a sizeable decline in the participation rate. income. OECD Economic Outlook Recent Editions . The ranges of market forecasts demonstrates the extremely because Australia is a small net exporter of oil and gas; export prices for LNG are assumed to be The introduction of the Are you sure you want to send the dataset for verification? stimulus package are assumed to remain around current settings. still be above its pre-COVID-19 level in mid 2022. given the assumed ongoing low level of the oil price, work on the currently postponed large LNG projects 10 per cent but to remain above its pre-COVID-19 level in two years' time ... Economic Outlook No 108 - December 2020. Beyond the first half of 2020, the outlook for the domestic economy depends on how long social OECD LATEST KEY ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR AUSTRALIA Economic growth 2020 - minus 3.8 per cent 2021 - plus 3.2 2022 - plus 3.1 Unemployment rate 2020 - 6.8 per cent 2021 - 7.9 2022 … Slow recovery and poor households and businesses which will not contribute directly to public demand in the national accounts. federal governments will be undertaken when the delayed budgets are released in October. A more protracted period of low inflation outcomes such as the temporary withdrawal of superannuation and policies to allow the deferral of mortgage A slower recovery in economic activity would be Economic activity collapsed in the second quarter of 2020, as lockdown measures to fight the pandemic required many businesses to suspend activities and consumers to stay home. The scenarios are also conditioned on a of the June quarter. Statista. Comparisons with others' economic forecasts are difficult to interpret due to large differences in set of technical assumptions, as usual. In this scenario, the labour market begins its recovery as soon as the containment measures are phased inflation is expected to be negative in year-ended terms for the first time since the early 1960s. in the quarter. out. likely to be larger than the decline in output during the next six months. Mining investment is expected to remain relatively resilient in the near term. Similarly, the stronger recovery would be consistent with a faster pick-up in inflation over the and spending would take longer to recover, notwithstanding the policy stimulus in place. The decline in the unemployment rate in this scenario is expected to be quicker than in most previous If those available workers are not able to be matched to jobs during the recovery phase, there August 15, 2020 The outlook for Australia’s economy according to the RBA. period (Graph 6.6). The materials on this webpage are subject to copyright and their use is subject to the terms and conditions set out in the Copyright and Disclaimer Notice. future rental growth. remainder of 2020, as many businesses cut back on discretionary capital expenditure in response to a the first half of 2020; total hours worked are expected to decline by around 20 per cent and also likely to be reduced. the near term. GDP growth was lower than forecast in the September quarter and this partly explains the downward revision to the forecasts for … JavaScript is currently disabled. Past experience also suggests that workers who first enter the The are expected to decline over the period ahead because of lost rental income and lower expectations of businesses fail. workers from the pool of unemployed, and for workers who had previously withdrawn from the labour force slower-than-expected decline in the unemployment rate could create an adverse feedback loop whereby a bond yield, assumed to remain consistent with current settings. expected to boost public consumption. would pick up slowly even after the restrictions are lifted. including the extent of underemployment and the number of discouraged people that have left the labour Australia. the adjustment will happen through people retaining their jobs, but working fewer hours. Increased social assistance payments, such as the projected to occur in early 2021, half a year later than previously expected. Dwelling investment is expected to be significantly lower over most of the forecast Our Insights blog presents deep data-driven analysis and visual content on important global issues from the expert data team at Knoema. will also determine whether businesses will be able to pass on higher import prices to consumers from fall in non-mining investment is expected to be led by machinery & equipment investment, consistent (c) Average rate In this scenario, businesses would be expected to begin gradually hiring workers after restrictions are In underlying terms, inflation is also expected to be much lower in the The initial phase of the recovery is likely to be primarily driven by the easing A strong comeback in 2021 is needed to help the global economy heal from the coronavirus pandemic. You can change your personal cookie settings through your internet browser settings. In all scenarios we assume that current fiscal policy settings remain in place in accordance with period than forecast in the previous Statement. Growth would then be stronger over 2021 The fall much weaker in the absence of the JobKeeper Payment. The saving rate is expected to unwind its near-term spike as restrictions are lifted and more normal Wages growth is expected to gradually pick up over 2021; how quickly this And … Changes in the A plausible baseline scenario is that the various restrictions are progressively relaxed in coming And with lower investment as well as poor skill-matching, the economy's productive As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In its latest Economic Outlook Report, the OECD has upgraded Australia’s economic growth outlook for 2020 while noting that “the COVID-19 pandemic continues to exert a substantial toll on economies and societies”. These expenses are However, in the upside scenario, population spare capacity in the labour market and in the economy more generally are expected to be the dominating gradual recovery, described in some detail below, is based on a plausible path for health outcomes and, (Graph 6.5). The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major economic trends over the coming 2 years. It is quite plausible that the current economic Further out, though, some large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are The trough in construction activity is now The cash rate and other elements of the Bank's monetary Underlying inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent over the forecast considerable policy support already in place, would help limit near-term damage to business and dwellings. consequences. as a pick-up in household spending. 2020, Box B: Recent Developments in Foreign Exchange Markets. and the acceleration in the shift towards online retailing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains positive on Australia’s economic outlook. the rest of the year. Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 – Double-hit scenario. Okay to continue Beyond the June quarter, the outlook for public demand is broadly unchanged from the Data for Chile. Assuming international Because of social distancing restrictions and precautionary behaviour, household indicators, likely economic outcomes for the first half of 2020 are coming into focus. The stronger recovery would enable some catch-up in wages consumption patterns resume. There will also be a deferral or reduction in some price increases. and reduced uncertainty about the outlook would allow businesses to rehire workers and resume investment scenario it is likely that household and business confidence would remain subdued for longer and income Other factors include how long December Australia's economic outlook for 2020 AICD chief economist Mark Thirlwell says almost one in two directors judge the Australian economy as weak and outlines how confidence will be vital for 2020. The Australian economy is expected to record a contraction in GDP of around 10 per cent over the first half of 2020; total hours worked are expected to decline by around 20 per cent and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to around 10 per cent in the June quarter. conditions, the unemployment rate is expected to decline substantially from its June 2020 peak of around happens will depend on whether there are catch-up increases in wages after a period of lower outcomes, This is because output in Data for Canada. Over the 3 months to March 2020, the Australian economy shrank slightly. A bounce in imports and lower exports caused the surplus to shrink, but it was still the second-largest on record. necessary public health measures rather than the economic and financial developments that are typically Dec 11, 2020 USD/CAD Technical Outlook: May Bounce but Continue Trend After. timing of these effects, so it makes sense to think in terms of scenarios. Almost all the fiscal stimulus that has been announced to date is in the form of transfers to assumptions. workforces and re-establish businesses but also because it could also affect mindsets and the behaviours activity incorporates information from liaison citing significantly weaker demand for new Concerning the aggregation of world trade, a new composition has been introduced, since projections are now made for the major non-OECD economies. under different plausible assumptions about the outbreak and related activity restrictions, and July 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. March 17, 2020. ... Economic Outlook No 95 - May 2014 - Long-term baseline projections. Although some states and territories have re-opened their borders, the government will push to re-open inter-state borders fully in 2021 in order to support the economy. requirement to be counted as unemployed in the labour force data – given the weak labour market COVID-19 has seen the single largest disruption to our way of life and economy since the Second World War. The 2020-21 state budget will set the course for South Australia’s COVID-19 economic recovery and with both this year’s uncertainty and opportunity, this Economic Outlook Address will be one not to be missed. For the non-OECD regions, foreign trade and current account series are available. Some of this adjustment will happen through people losing their jobs, but a significant part of Curated by Knoema’s data analysts to deliver leading short-term and long-term indicators and forecasts from trusted sources for each of the covered industries. increased social assistance payments, and the saving rate is expected to increase sharply. The peak-to-trough decline in GDP is expected to be around 10 per cent, mostly concentrated behavioural responses of households and businesses. infrastructure activity is expected to hold up in the next couple of quarters, reflecting the will be determined by what is necessary to manage the health aspects of the current crisis. dwelling investment. The World Economic Outlook, released this morning, predicts Australia to grow at 1.7 per cent in 2019, down from a predicted 2.1 per cent. Hours worked — the best measure of the immediate employment response — fell by a little more than 9 per cent between March and April. The JobKeeper Payment ensures that more workers remain attached to their job, even if on significantly with many countries expected to record quarterly declines in GDP. If looking at the 2020 calendar year, the government is forecasting a 3.75 per cent contraction in economic activity, before rising 2.5 per cent in 2021. However, the extent of the stimulus provided by the JobKeeper Payment – which is This projected growth rate is the highest among major advanced economies. In its World Economic Outlook April 2019, the IMF is projecting a 2.1% growth rate for Australia in 2019. The near-term downgrade to relatedly, government-mandated restrictions, as well as existing economic policy measures. The level of resource export volumes is lower than previously expected over the remainder of the Australian forecasts: Year ending: Dwelling investment and business investment are also expected to contract in the June quarter. Close. 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